Long-Term Weight Change: Association with Impaired Glucose Metabolism in Young Austrian Adults

Little is known about the associations between long-term weight change and the natural history of impaired fasting glucose (IFG) in young adults. We investigated the association between long-term body mass index (BMI) change and the risk of IFG using data of 24,930 20- to 40-year-old participants from the Vorarlberg Health Monitoring and Promotion Program (VHM&PP) cohort. Poisson models were applied to estimate the 10-year risk for new development of IFG (≥ 5.6 mmol/L), and persistence of IFG. Over 10 years, most men (68.2%) and women (70.0%) stayed within their initial BMI category. The risk for incident IFG was highest for men and women with persisting obesity (37.4% and 24.1%) and lowest with persisting normal weight (15.7% and 9.3%). Men transitioning from normal to overweight increased their risk of incident IFG by factor 1.45 (95%-CI: 1.31, 1.62), women by 1.70 (95%-CI: 1.50, 1.93), whereas transitioning from overweight to normal weight decreased the risk in men by 0.69 (95%-CI: 0.53, 0.90) and 0.94 (95%-CI: 0.66, 1.33) in women. Relative risks for men and women transitioning from obesity to overweight were 0.58 and 0.44, respectively. In conclusion, 10 year weight increase was associated with an increased IFG risk, weight decrease with a decreased risk of IFG in young adults.